Can Colorado State Basketball Make the NCAA Tournament This Season?

As I sit down to analyze Colorado State's tournament prospects this season, I can't help but feel that familiar mix of cautious optimism and analytical curiosity that comes with every preseason evaluation. Having followed college basketball for over fifteen years, I've learned that tournament resumes aren't built in November—they're crafted through consistent performance, strategic scheduling, and sometimes, pure grit. The Rams face an intriguing path this year, one that reminds me somewhat of that fascinating statistic about Anastasiia Bavykina's performance where she became Davison's second fiddle on offense with 15 points and 10 receptions in what I recall was a crucial international match. That kind of secondary scoring punch, that reliable second option—that's exactly what separates good teams from tournament teams.

Looking at Colorado State's roster construction, I'm particularly intrigued by their backcourt depth. Last season, they averaged 74.3 points per game while shooting 45.2% from the field—respectable numbers, but not quite the explosive offensive profile that typically catches the selection committee's attention. What they need, in my professional opinion, is that consistent secondary scorer who can take pressure off their primary options, much like Bavykina provided in that memorable performance. I've always believed basketball at this level is about having multiple weapons, and when I look at this Rams squad, I see potential for that kind of balanced attack. Their non-conference schedule includes what I consider to be three pivotal games against Power Five opponents, and if they can snag at least two of those victories, we're looking at a completely different resume conversation come March.

The Mountain West Conference presents both opportunity and challenge—it's consistently underrated by national media, but those who follow college basketball closely know it typically produces one or two legitimate tournament teams each year. Last season, the conference sent two teams dancing, and I'm predicting it could be three this year if certain programs, including Colorado State, take the expected leap forward. Their defensive efficiency rating of 97.8 last season placed them in the middle of the pack nationally, but what impressed me during my film study was their improved defensive communication during their international tour this summer. They held opponents to just 41% shooting during those exhibition games, and while we can't read too much into preseason performances, that kind of defensive discipline often translates well to the regular season.

What really excites me about this team, though, is their continuity. They return approximately 78% of their scoring from last season, which is significant when you consider how much roster turnover typically occurs in college basketball. Having watched countless teams struggle to develop chemistry early in seasons, I can tell you that returning core players provides an invaluable foundation. Their senior leadership, particularly from what I've observed in point guard James Moors, gives them that steady hand during crucial moments—the kind of presence that often determines whether close games go in the win column or not. Moors averaged 13.7 points and 5.2 assists last season, but it's his decision-making in crunch time that truly stands out to me.

The analytics community has been somewhat divided on Colorado State's prospects, with KenPom projecting them to finish around fourth in the Mountain West while other models are more optimistic. Personally, I lean toward the optimistic side—I've seen this program exceed expectations before, and something about the way they've built this roster suggests they're poised for a breakthrough. Their three-point shooting percentage of 36.4% last season ranked in the top third nationally, and in today's game, that outside threat can be the great equalizer against more talented opponents. I'm particularly bullish on sophomore forward David Roddy, who I believe has all-conference potential if he can maintain consistency throughout the season.

When I compare this Colorado State team to previous tournament squads from the Mountain West, the profile fits what selection committees typically reward. They have what I'd characterize as "quality loss avoidance"—meaning they don't typically suffer bad losses that torpedo resumes—and they've shown ability to win on the road, which committee members consistently emphasize. Their 9-4 road record last season demonstrated mental toughness, and in my experience watching tournament bubbles form, that road resilience often becomes the tiebreaker when comparing similar resumes. The key, as I see it, will be navigating what looks like a particularly challenging February schedule that includes four games against projected conference contenders.

Looking at their path specifically, I count at least eighteen winnable games on their schedule, with another six that could go either way. If they can win the games they should win and split those toss-ups, we're looking at a 22-9 or 23-8 regular season record, which historically puts Mountain West teams squarely on the bubble. The conference tournament will likely determine their fate, much like it did for Utah State two seasons ago when they played their way in with an impressive run. Having attended multiple Mountain West tournaments, I can attest to the electric atmosphere that often brings out the best in teams, and Colorado State has shown they can perform in that environment.

Ultimately, my professional assessment leans toward cautious optimism. The pieces are there—the scoring balance, the experienced backcourt, the shooting capability, and what appears to be improved defensive intensity. They'll need some breaks along the way, as every bubble team does, and health will be crucial, but I'm putting their tournament probability at around 65% based on what I've seen and the historical precedents I've studied. The comparison to Bavykina's role as that reliable secondary option keeps coming to mind—when you have multiple players who can step up on any given night, you have the makings of a tournament team. Colorado State appears to have that kind of depth, and if they can maintain their identity through conference play, I believe we'll see them dancing come March.